Blog

December 2010

Developing regional scenarios for climate change and food security in 2030

Submitted by Vanessa on 1st December 2010
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Participants at an East African Scenarios workshop discuss how climate change and food security might unfold in the region until 2030.

Participants at an East African Scenarios workshop discuss how climate change and food security might unfold in the region to 2030.

What could East Africa, West Africa, and the Indo-Gangetic Plains look like in 2030? Could there be high levels of regional integration where governments work together to boost economic development and ensure food security? Or will the status quo remain, where environmental degradation and poverty stays high and there is little regional concern about the state of agriculture and food security? Read more »

Major study addresses climate change threat to food security

Submitted by Vanessa on 1st December 2010
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Groundnuts produced in NW Ghana. The effects of climate change on yields for sta

As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world’s population.

A new major study launched today by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.

The report finds that between now and 2050 staple-food prices could rise by 42-131 percent for maize, 11-78 percent for rice, and 17-67 percent for wheat, depending on the state of the world’s climate, economy, and population.

The study highlights poverty for three reasons. First, because the bigger consumers’ incomes, the greater their ability to afford higher food prices caused in part by climate change. Second, better-off families cope more easily with uncertainty. And third, farming families with higher incomes are better positioned to invest in new technologies that might be costly at the outset but improve productivity and resilience in the long run.

The authors conclude that the negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growth—particularly improved agricultural productivity—and robust international trade in agricultural products to offset regional shortages. In pursuit of these goals, policymakers should increase public investment in land, water, and nutrient use and maintain relatively free international trade. This inquiry into the future of food security should be of use to policymakers and others concerned with the impact of climate change on international development.

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You can watch a live webcast of the launch today at 12:15 EST

‘Hamburgers et yamburgers* - Implication d’un futur de quatre degrés pour l’alimentation en Afrique

Submitted by Sonja on 1st December 2010
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(*burgers à la patate douce)

Les scientifiques les plus optimistes accordent leurs prédictions sur une augmentation maximale de 2 degrés de la température moyenne du globe vers la fin du siècle. Cependant le consensus est en train de changer. En effet, même si les engagements mondiaux actuels en termes de mitigation étaient entièrement respectés nous attiendrions + 3.5°C en 2100. Le bureau national britannique de la météo (UK Met Office) indique qu’un monde à + 4 degrés est assez probable, et il serait éventuellement atteint vers 2070 voir même 2060 – dans la vie de nos enfants. Ceci se traduira par une augmentation drastique de 15°C dans la température moyenne de l’Arctique, et de 3 à 8 °C dans les régions les plus peuplées du globe. 
 
Les décideurs les plus avant-gardistes affirment à juste titre que l’adaptation dans l’agriculture doit se faire en priorité localement, centré sur les connaissances et les innovations locales. Mais, qu’en serait-il si les agriculteurs étaient confrontés à des conditions complètement différentes à celles qu’ils ont connues au cours de leur vie ? L’agriculture est très sensible, même à un scénario de 2 degrés. Un monde à + 4  degrés dépasse les limites des savoirs à la fois locaux et mondiaux, et toute expérience aussi bien historique que moderne. En 2050 dans un quart des pays Africains – principalement au Sahel – les systèmes agricoles vont faire face à des conditions climatiques pour lesquelles il n’existe aucun analogue à l’heure actuelle au niveau mondial.
 
Un nouvel article intitulé ‘Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world’ de Philip Thornton, Peter Jones, Polly Ericksen et Andrew Challinor, prévoit des effets profonds. Read more »

Hamburgers and yamburgers? Four-degree futures for food in Africa

Submitted by Sonja on 1st December 2010
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Fetching water in the northern dryland areas of Kenya. 80 per cent of Kenya’s la

Optimistic scientists are holding out for a maximum 2 degree rise in mean global temperatures by the end of the century.  But the consensus is changing.  Even if current global mitigation pledges are fully delivered, we will reach +3.5C by 2100.  The UK Met Office says a 4 degree world is quite possible, and will plausibly be reached by 2070 or even 2060 – in our children’s lifetimes.   This will mean average temperature rises of a massive 15C in the Arctic, and 3-8C in the world’s most populated areas. 
 
Forward-thinking policy-makers rightly assert that adaptation in agriculture should be homegrown as far as possible, centred on local knowledge and local innovation.  But what if farmers are confronted with conditions completely unlike anything that they have experienced in their lifetimes?  Agriculture is highly sensitive even to a 2 degree scenario; a 4 degree world is beyond the bounds of both local and global knowledge, both modern and historical experience.  By 2050 a quarter of African countries – mainly in the Sahel – will be experiencing crop growing conditions for which there are no current analogues globally.
 
A new paper, Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world, by Philip Thornton, Peter Jones, Polly Ericksen and Andrew Challinor, foresees profound effects.  In short, 4 degrees cuts down both the range of potential adaptation options and the efficacy of those options.  Different crop models give different estimates, but ensembles of models suggest average yield drops of 19% for maize and 47% for beans, and much more frequent crop failures.  Furthermore, the cultivars of maize that can produce reliable yields at +4 degrees are only a small fraction of current varieties.  Africa-wide, a massive 1.2 million km2 may be forced to flip from typical mixed farms, with both crops and livestock, into pure rangeland.  To put this loss into perspective, current estimates of cropland in Africa range from 1 to 6 million km2 (yes, even our most basic agricultural data are poor). Read more »