February 2012

by Ousmane Ndiaye and Robert Zougmoré   

Seasonal climate forecasts could have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and livelihoods for smallholder farmers. But constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcities have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal predictions in the Sahel region. The existing constraints reflect inadequate information services, policies or institutional process in the region, however there are great potential in overcoming them. One trend is that regional climate outlook forums and national meteorological services have been at the forefront to provide forecast information for agriculture to rural farmers. One example of this is the communication workshop on probabilistic seasonal climate forecast, held in Senegal last year and supported  by CCAFS. As part of the work on providing farmers with forecasts, a follow up workshop was held in late January to see how farmers used the information in their agricultural practices and what needs to be further improved. Read more »

Yesterday we launched a series of reports which look at the effectiveness of global climate models in predicting agricultural impacts in Africa and South Asia, with a particular emphasis on their ability to predict how climate change will affect key crops in those regions. The results are not surprising: we don't have perfect climate projections for agriculture, and in many cases, the data is quite weak. So what can we do about it?

In a live video seminar yesterday, lead authors Mark New from the University of Cape Town and Richard Washington from Oxford University, noted the weaknesses and emphasized that in some cases, a variety of models can be used together to overcome individual weaknesses. This approach, however, requires quite a lot of time and effort. On the bright side, the authors noted that more and more information is becoming available. The studies also highlight where models need further development, providing a useful guide for research investments. In case you missed it you can still watch a recording of the session.

The overarching message is that this uncertainty not an excuse for inaction. In response to yesterday's report, our colleagues at CIAT have published an insightful analysis of the role of uncertainty. Rather than being something that dogs climate science, uncertainty must be perceived as a basic feature and can even be a positive driver: Read more »

by Vanessa Meadu

Today, CGIAR climate change, agriculture and food security innovations are being shared with Japanese researchers at the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council Secretariat in the city of Tsukuba.

Dr. Eva Wollenberg, who leads the CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) research on pro-poor climate change mitigation, and Dr. Ruben Echeverría, Director General of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture - CIAT will present ongoing work and key findings from the CCAFS program and its international partners. CIAT is the lead centre for the CCAFS program, headquartered in Cali, Colombia.

The session also will include presentations from Japanese scientists currently undertaking work on climate change and agriculture that could potentially contribute to research efforts in developing countries.

One of the objectives of the visit is to strengthen research links between Japan and the international agricultural research community working on climate change and food security. The CGIAR has had a long and productive history working with Japanese partners on a range of initiatives. Read more »

In a harsh and unpredictable environment, reliable weather information is crucial for farmers to successfully grow their crops. By studying a successful weather information program in Mali, climate adaptation researchers and agencies are hoping to learn how to best deploy similar programs in the region, to help reduce the risks faced by smallholder farmers. Highlighted by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in November, the Mali Meteorological Program has since 1982 shared weather information with over 2500 farmers. As a result, farmers are reporting increased yields and willingness to invest in new technologies.

CCAFS, together with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the Institute for Rural Economy of Mali (IER) and sub-regional partners (AGRHYMET) recently engaged in a three-day training workshop on the assessment methodology of the Mali Meteorological Program. The Mali meeting kicked off the next few months of survey work; a team will be speaking to the people involved in the project to discover the keys to its success and how similar initiatives could potentially be implemented elsewhere. Read more »