Research addressing climate change and the Horn of Africa drought

Dear Kephas:
You raise some good points about the need for governments and domestic civil servants to also take action. The media has been quick to highlight the many obstacles to food aid distribution (including refugee camp leaders stealing much-needed food to sell on the black market), but there are more intrinsic, infrastructural issues at play. Since the Somalian government imploded in 1991, civil war and various crises have caused a complete breakdown in institutions, including basic economic/agricultural ones: "Pastures have dried up, and the animals that Somali nomads survive off of are dying in droves. Food prices are escalating, and after 20 years of anarchy, coping mechanisms are collapsing, with many families driven from their land and many breadwinners cut down in Somalia’s endless iterations of civil war," reports the NYTimes (21 July). With food price increases surpassing 300% (The Atlantic, 30 July), monetary inflation at 270% (LIFE magazine, 19 July), and thousands migrants pouring over the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders daily, the issue isn't as simple as providing food aid or seeds. It's a deep-rooted problem. But it's one that, as you and we point out, is likely to get worse as climate change leads to increased droughts and erratic conditions. The correct response now may be to try to save as many lives as possible, but the pathway to longer-term adaptation holds no such easy prescriptions. Even so, as Stewart M. Patrick of the Council for Foreign Relations notes, "The international community has the power to tailor food aid that... increases agricultural productivity so farmers can save surpluses, through support for technological improvement." This may be the key role that outside research institutes and development agencies can play.

Not Climate Change, try responsibility for Food security: While drought is caused by lack of rainfall, famine is man-made. As the Nobel prize-winning economist Amartya Sen famously observed, famines do not occur in functioning democracies. This famine could as well be attributed to the poor leadership in the ministry of Agriculture in the period proceeding to the real time and the failure of politics and leadership at the treasury. These are the two institutions that should have put strategies in place to avert the current situation. Did Kenya even ever think about it? For Kenyans to consider any measures or strategies toward solving the problem of food security, then we have to seek to interrogate basic known facts on drought and food security in the region. Basically the three most affected groups are: a) Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in arid and semi-arid areas. b) Small-scale, resource-poor farmers and c) the urban poor. Important to note too are some of the underlying causes of long-term food insecurity such as; i) there is the high risk of natural hazards, especially drought, because of the aridity of much of the region and the fact that rainfall is low, unreliable and unevenly distributed; ii) there is also evidence that the climate is becoming more unstable. iii) Widespread regional and local conflict also triggers food insecurity; it drives people from their homes and disrupts marketing and distribution systems. These are but basic factors of food insecurity in the horn of Africa and Kenya in particular. If these factors have been known to be here with us, the questions we should seek to discuss are 1.what is the problem? 2. Why no preparedness to food security? 3. What should be done and by who? Although it is clearly evident that the Civil service is blind to effects of Climate change and food security in Kenya, the onus lies on a section of the civil service, all the ministries related to Agricultural development and the treasury. A simple question, why would the public service want to sack Chief Philip Elimlim of Kalabata in Turkana for showing journalists the book in which he recorded people who have died in his location and some from hunger and malnutrition? The implementer of government policy including that on climate change and food security is the civil service and not the NGO. More specific in regards to the topical issue of drought and the starving masses in northern Kenya one can only query the adaptation and mitigation programs in addition to the contingence plan put in place by the relevant government arms since three to four years ago. In order to meet global demands, Kenya will need to produce 70-90% more food by 2030. Can we manage that? Impacts of climate change are already measurable and consequently here with us in forms of varied temperatures, failing rains, health challenges resulting from new veterinary and human diseases, crop failures, fishery collapses and livestock deaths. These are already causing economic losses and undermine food security, and are likely to become more severe as global warming continues. The relationships among climate change, agriculture and food security are complex and dynamic. Agriculture and food systems are heavily influenced by socio-economic conditions such as changing patterns of consumption, macro-economic policies, conflict and the spread of disease. The fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger is established in Article 11 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the branch of international law inspired by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. On the other hand this is related to the millennium development goal number 1 that was set to be achieved by 2015 in Kenya like the rest of the world. It should be highly noted that whilst poverty is undoubtedly a fundamental cause of hunger, poor households are unable to purchase food despite its availability; it is equally a consequence of hunger. For example undernourished children from families in Turkana, Moyale and Wajir are less able to work or learn to their full potential. Despite long standing research estimate/findings that growth of rural economies accelerates poverty reduction four times faster than other sectors, the proportion of treasury budgetary allocation to agriculture is dismally less than 4.5% in since independence. Kenya is yet to practically think of how it will achieve the 2003 Maputo Declaration, which called for at least 10% of national budgets to be dedicated to agriculture, to spur national economies. With all this enough evidence to act, what can we say when Kenya’s treasury is inhabited by tribal minded professionals that only think of ethnic supremacies rather than the plight of the fabric of the national Kenyan economy and poverty. The consequence of this prolonged lack of investment is an inadequate infrastructure for rural economies. Only 2% of productive land in Kenya is irrigated whilst poor roads and storage facilities impede market functions. Thought today we are rushing to the northern Kenya with bales of CSB/ unimix that will feed 40,000 families for a day, do we ask what about the 364 days in the year? Are we aware that even if there were foods on the market in Turkana, Wajir and East Pokot sometimes as is the case, so highly priced? Does this pastoralist have the livelihoods and income to use to purchase the highly priced food stuff the rest of the seasons? Are we not aware that, mean annual temperatures increased from 1960-2006 by 1C in Kenya, and that the frequency of hot days is increasing in this region? We are equally aware that rainfall trends are less clear and with this something need be done. Nevertheless, it is public knowledge that research by climate change experts expect a significant increase in weather variability, contributing to a fourfold increase of material damage and a rising death toll from natural disasters, in particular floods, droughts and landslides, thus further aggravating a rising past trend. Particularly worrying is the fact that these natural disasters hit the poor disproportionately as is doing right now and shall continue to do so, to our fellow Kenyans and especially in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL). In fact agriculture everywhere in the horn of Africa and in particular, Kenya, runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in the horn of Africa can be significantly improved. The question is can the government systems centrally engage the researchers and technical climate change teams for the benefit of the poor and vulnerable rural people now suffering effects of the lack of a drought preparedness strategy? The effects of climate change will continue to be with us world over, in Kenya and the horn of Africa, even more increasingly. The recent droughts in the region tested the archaic measures introduced by the government and their potential irrelevance as is the situation as now. Serious and simple measures of adapting to long-term climatic changes and further mitigation processes are what is required to be undertaken. In this we need to highlight the need for the Government of Kenya through the ministry of Agriculture (livestock/fisheries/water) to promote an integrated drought management system that links together: the distribution of a diversified mix of locally appropriate, traditional seeds at the community level; improved access to water resources (such as sand dams) and water conservation practices (such as drip irrigation systems); and the diversification of livelihoods through promoting and using drought tolerant crops, training villagers in small-scale business management, and promoting the provision of micro-credit by local financial systems . These are very simple measures that should be undertaken at the community level across the country to prepare farmers and pastoralist holistically for the ever increasing effects of climate change as they shall, like it or not, increase in intensity and consequence. Firstly, it is the role of the ministries of Agriculture, livestock and fisheries to demonstrate the critical role of agricultural (including veterinary) extension services in preparing farmers and pastoralist for the impacts of climate change, not at hotel meeting rooms but at the village, farm and rangeland level. There is need to improve agricultural extension capacity in Kenya and to raise the capacity of County and ward officials to access sufficient information about climate change, its potential implications and actions they can take to reduce vulnerability in the agriculture sector. More important is the process of sharing research findings in the areas of Climate change adaptation and mitigation processes for the capacity building of extension officers and the subsequent enabling of the farmers/pastoralists. In the performance contracting of theses ministries staff, there must be set clear SMART objectives and the expected results undoubtedly analyzed with clearly defined activities to be performed in a gnantchart with understandable outputs. While awakening the treasury and public service commission to avail the necessary inputs (money and staff) will be the begging of wisdom for the government. Secondly, it is imperative that the ministry takes a continuous action by bringing together meteorologists, agronomists, agricultural extensions officers, seed, livestock specialists, and farmers; to demonstrate and embed a process for generating and delivering the information farmers/pastoralists need to make informed Livestock production and farm planting decisions that takes into consideration the uncertainty associated with rainfall projections. Improving access to meteorological information at the local level and communicating this knowledge to pastoralists/farmers in a manner that is understandable to them will help pastoralists/farmers cope with increasingly unpredictable weather conditions. Thirdly, with the limitations of the natural environment in the horn of Africa that place certain constraints on improving food security, the chances of drought occurring in parts of Kenya have increased from a probability of one in every six years to one in three years for those areas affected. Over the last decade there have been two apparent changes in long-term weather patterns. First, there is a mean decrease in annual rainfall in the region; and second, inter-annual variability of rainfall has been increasing in the crescent from Kenya to Sudan, including parts of Ethiopia and Tanzania. Hence with this picture I suppose there should be every need for the government to guarantee that the relevant civil service teams have to ensure that all interventions contribute to improved and diversified livelihoods as well as facilitating the integration of adaptation to climate change into policies related to disaster management and sustainable development of arid and semi-arid lands and to small farmers in rural agricultural areas. In all these, it is import to note that it is neither the president nor the prime minister who is supposed to implement government policy in these sectors but the relevant civil servants starting from the permanent secretaries to the ward officers. But, with career civil servants who thrive in making deals and running their own business, while holding brief for their appointing authorities in such deals still running ministries, can we have such simple activities as required to make hunger and poverty history, implemented at the ward and county level spearheaded by the career civil servants? How do you have staff working at the local level without job descriptions and defined activities and result areas? How can one former cabinet member move around saying I have been a minister of Agriculture or livestock while it is during such tenure of his, that no sufficient seeds were made available to farmers hence insufficient harvest. According to the UNFAO food insecurity in the region is principally, but not exclusively, a rural problem. Hence when famine strikes, it is the rural population who is most vulnerable. Interventions need to be planned on the basis of a good understanding of the factors that contribute to the particular vulnerability of rural people. Do the leaders in the relevant ministries understand these basics? Will they? The relevant ministries teaming up with their line research institutes will need to carry out ex-ante assessment of a wide range of technology and policy options related to risk management, adaptation and mitigation, and to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies among the environmental, livelihood and food security aspects. Findings of which will need to be disseminated widely among stakeholders, the local and rural community for implementation and experimentation. Key will be to test pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for food systems, adaptive capacity and rural livelihoods. If other countries are already doing these can our own civil service, ministries and their relevant line research institution do it? Can we prepare our people for the looming disaster or we increasingly get exposed to such shameful situations as we face today? It is not about the NGOs but the main stream civil service. It is the responsibility of the government and its people to take charge of the situation. Yes they have the onus to do so. Will they? By Indangasi M Kephas is a Rural Development Expert and a Kenyan working with C&D (Changes and Dimensions) International in South Asia (Cambodia). Kephas [dot] indangasi [at] gmail [dot] com

I like to recieve informations.