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uncertainty

How can we make climate information work for agriculture?

Submitted by Lisen on 6th March 2012
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Climate information is essential for decision-making in agriculture. Photo: P. C

By Lisen Stenberg

Agricultural production depends heavily on the climate, particularly in developing countries where rainfed agriculture is predominant. Therefore, information about changing environmental conditions is essential for any decision-maker in agriculture. When information is lacking, farmers have limited capacity to prepare for extreme events such as floodings and drought.  When faced with uncertainty, there is a risk that farmers favor precautionary actions that protect them from the effects of environmental extremes, rather than making important investments in technology that could raise their productivity and income in the longer-term. Read more »

CCAFS scenarios engage regions to plan for uncertain futures

Submitted by Joost on 24th February 2012
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Developing and using scenarios helps reveal key issues for future food security

by Joost Vervoort 

The need for strategic, concerted action for improved food security, environments and livelihoods in the developing world is a major challenge. We live in a time when changing conditions and risks associated with climate change interact with rapid political, economic and social changes in the world's vulnerable regions.

Attempts to predict future changes in such complex, rapidly changing conditions are extremely difficult if not impossible. Illusions of predictability are potentially dangerous. Still, governments and non-state actors alike must think and act strategically in the face of uncertainty.

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Temps nuageux, avec une probabilité de sécheresse

Submitted by Sonja on 2nd November 2011
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Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)

Selon le rapport de 2007 du Groupe intergouvernemental sur les changements climatiques (PDF), dans un monde plus chaud de 4C les rendements du blé pourraient diminuer de 60% ou augmenter de 40%. Comment la science peut elle gérer de tels niveaux d'incertitude de sorte à aider, plutôt qu’á paralyser, les prises de décisions politiques? Une partie de la réponse réside dans l'amélioration de l’estimation  des incertitudes et des risques, comme sont en train de le faire actuellement des programmes scientifiques multidisciplinaires tels que EQUIP (à l'université de Leeds ). Une autre partie de la réponse se trouve dans une meilleure communication entre Science et Politique.

L’article de Nick Pidgeon et Baruch Fischhoff Le rôle des sciences sociales et de la décision dans la communication de l’incertitude liée aux risques climatiques, passe en revue la vaste série d’opinions sur la communication des risques climatiques pour se concentrer enfin sur celles qui à l’évidence fonctionnent. Les auteurs partagent largement les opinions exposées par le Rapport Stern sur l'économie du changement climatique,  et les Académies Nationales, selon lesquelles nous devrions nous concentrer  sur les risques, les coûts  et les bénéfices de voies spécifiques d’action et non pas sur les persistantes incertitudes qui entourent les déterminants, les processus et les impacts climatiques. Plutôt que d’inviter à des délais infinis - le temps qu’on cherche à obtenir de plus grandes certitudes - cette orientation permettrait de favoriser la prise de décisions. Read more »

Cloudy, with a chance of drought

Submitted by Sonja on 2nd November 2011
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Better communication can help scientists cut through the clouds of uncertainty.

Wheat yields could drop by 60% or rise by 40% in a 4C warmer world, according to the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF).  How can science manage such huge levels of uncertainty, so as to assist rather than paralyze policy decisions?  Part of the answer lies in improving how we estimate uncertainties and risks, as multi-disciplinary scientific programs like EQUIP (at the university of Leeds) are doing.  Another part lies in better communication between science and policy. 

The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks, an article by Nick Pidgeon and Baruch Fischhoff, cuts through the swathe of opinions on communicating climate risks to the evidence on what works.  The authors broadly condone the views of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, and the National Academies, that we should focus on the risks, costs and benefits of specific pathways of action, rather than on the persistent uncertainties around climatic drivers, processes and impacts.  This focus enables decisions, rather than inviting endless delays while we seek greater certainty.  Read more »

Is Eastern Africa drought the result of climate change?

Submitted by Vanessa on 19th July 2011
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While the drought is real, it's too soon to blame it on climate change. Pic by N

Devastating reports coming from the Horn of Africa indicate that some places are experiencing the worst drought in 60 years. And while it may seem logical to blame the dry conditions on climate change, CCAFS theme leader Philip Thornton warns against attributing a single event to climate change. In a recent interview, he told IRIN Africa that there are challenges in projecting climate change impacts in East Africa:

”Some people think that East Africa is drying, and has dried over recent years; currently there is no hard, general evidence of this, and it is very difficult as yet to see where the statistical trends of rainfall in the region are heading, but these will of course become apparent in time.”

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