Development of an analogue method for examining both spatial and temporal analogues based on multiple climate projections
It is expected that changes in climate baseline, variability and extremes will have far-reaching consequences on agricultural production posing additional challenges to reach sustainable food security for the world's growing population. Future farming and food systems will face substantial though different changes in their environments. Climate will migrate among regions bringing winners and losers and disproportionally affecting poor and marginalized farmers that have a lower capacity to adapt. To achieve adapted farming systems for changing climate conditions in space and time we need to develop new technologies and modeling activities across a range of pilot sites. However, to test and validate meaningful adaptation practices and policies, a major constraint is to overcome is the difficulty to imagine what the future climate in a particular area will look like.
To develop an initial analogue methodology and proof of concept for identifying and mapping spatial and temporal analogue sites across the globe based on multiple climate projections. To provide insights into the vulnerability of crops to climate change and support field evaluation, using today's climate, of agricultural adaptation options for 2030 and beyond.
A tool that allows
Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, UK. Leader: Josh Hooker
Initial phase: Aug-Dec 2010. It will be followed in 2011 by an implementation phase including case studies in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and West Africa and a training workshop.
CCAFS Working Paper no. 12
by Julián Ramírez-Villegas, Charlotte Lau, Ann-Kristin Köhler, Johannes Signer,
Related blog: Mapping and Connecting Climate Analogues
CCAFS Coordinating Unit - University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Science, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Rolighedsvej 21, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark, phone +45 35331046; Email ccafs [at] cgiar [dot] org, EAN 5790000279012
Lead Center - International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)