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Improving the IMPACT model for targeted policy engagement

Project description

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security under a changing climate. This work is led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and CCAFS has since 2011 co-supported significant IMPACT model improvements, as well as several research products using IMPACT results, and related multi-stakeholder trainings. The continuation of this project aims to further enhance the IMPACT suite of models, towards improved analysis of climate change impacts by incorporating, among other things, variability and land-use changes into the model. In parallel, targeted policy engagement with ongoing and new partners under the Global Futures and Foresight Program, using the IMPACT model, aims to inform better decision-making processes.  The project aims to build capacity among stakeholders to use IMPACT in their decision-making processes. The project sees this leading to an enhanced institutionalization of strategic foresight analysis covering plausible global futures for agriculture and food security under climate change. The results of this improved analysis will then be used as inputs for improved decisions on climate policy and investment. Furthermore, an established community of practice of biophysical scientists, economic modelers and other disciplines is expected to further contribute to an improved understanding of long-term challenges and opportunities in agriculture and food security at a variety of scales, and to better inform priority setting for investment resources.

Activities

  • Model improvement–Fish and Livestock modules for IMPACT: Improved livestock and fish modules in IMPACT, incorporating multiple production systems, and strengthened links to CGE models and to post-process models of food security, nutrition, health, and environmental outcomes under alternative policy and investment strategies.
  • Scenario development–testing the improved model: Engagement with regional and national partners and stakeholders to develop scenarios relevant to regional and national decision-making challenges.
  • Analysis of selected scenarios to inform policy decisions: Implementation of the selected scenarios in the IMPACT system of models and analysis of the results, with particular focus on Southeast Asia.

Expected outcomes

Through collaboration, and policy dissemination of IMPACT-related results, CGIAR Centers, donors, national and regional partners, and development practitioners are able to better analyse the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. Strategic foresight analysis of plausible futures for global agriculture and food security, under alternative climate change scenarios, and assumptions about population, income, technology and resources, is embedded in the decision making mechanisms of partner institutions and the results of this analysis are used for improved decisions on policy and investment.

Partners

More information

For more information, please contact project leader Keith Wiebe, IFPRI (k.wiebe@cgiar.org).