Agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP)

Collaboration is key to understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture. Photo: N. Palmer (CIAT)
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Project description

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international collaborative effort focusing on “incorporating state-of-the-art climate products as well as crop and agricultural economic model improvements in coordinated regional and global assessments of future climate impacts”. CCAFS, with its former Theme on Policy Analysis, was co-leading the AGMIP Global Economics Team during AgMIP Phase 1 (2011-2013), with an emphasis on global economic modeling.

The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.

Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector.

AgMIP is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural economics modeling groups around the world. It aims to significantly enhance information, including uncertainty estimates, to guide policymakers regarding risk of hunger, world food security, and agricultural adaptation, under a changing climate.

A key aspect of the Global Economics team work is to create capacity-building partnerships among agricultural crop and economic modelers around the world, with a goal to facilitate intercomparison of both regional and global agricultural market models being used for climate change impact and adaptation research.

During AgMIP’s Phase 1 (2011-2013), the global economic research included 10 models. It was partially incepted to support the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Key results of this work have been included in a PNAS paper and a special issue in the Journal of Agricultural Economics. This work has provided broad insights into how the modeling groups approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, and bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.

Outputs

Further information

For more information, please contact Project Leader Lieven Claessens (ICRISAT) at l.claessens@cgiar.org.