Impacts through policies and partnerships

E. van de Grift
Outcomes & Impacts

Projecting the future to guide today’s agriculture, climate and development policies

East Africa
West Africa
Latin America
Southeast Asia
Priorities and Policies for CSA

Developing policies that will meet future challenges requires foresight to predict the situations that need to be met. CCAFS experts and partners have supported the creation of national climate, agriculture and socioeconomic development policies by using the scenarios technique. Scenarios are different ‘what-if’ accounts of the future that can be told in words, numbers, images, maps and/or interactive learning tools.

In 2015, CCAFS researchers helped formulate a range of agriculture, climate and development policies and plans in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Colombia, Ghana, Honduras, Tanzania and Uganda. Working with experts from the University of Oxford, UK, the CCAFS scenarios team collaborated with various stakeholders to first develop regional scenarios in each country. These were quantified using 2 agricultural economic models: the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) and the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM).

E. van de Grift

IMPACT is a tool developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) made up of linked economic, water and crop models that assesses the long-term challenges facing policy makers in reducing hunger and poverty in a sustainable way. GLOBIOM, from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), is used to analyse competition for land use between agriculture, forestry and bioenergy.

Once the regional scenarios had been agreed upon, the teams worked closely with national stakeholders to rapidly design a process around down-scaled and policy-specific scenarios. The modelling software also allowed policy makers to test their plans against different socioeconomic/climate scenarios. Analysing the draft plans from the perspective of each scenario allowed recommendations to be integrated into the plans to create more robust versions.

“Here we see rigorous research interfacing directly with policy development. That’s groundbreaking.” Dr. Edidah Ampaire, Project Coordinator, International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Uganda

Cambodia’s Climate Change Priorities Action Plan, for example, contains scenarios for agriculture and agroforestry, rubber, livestock, forestry and fisheries.

The plan is one of the starting points in mainstreaming climate change into formal development planning, with a budget of almost USD 74 million.

In Honduras, the exercise so improved the draft Climate Strategy that it has also been used to develop a broader government adaptation plan. Participants in a related workshop also expressed an interest in using the same methodology to strengthen other national climate and agriculture plans.