Scenario-guided policy and investment planning for food- and nutrition-secure futures under climate change

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Project Activities

In 2021, together with policy makers, we will integrate results from 4 major regional processes to review results of the BNP Paribas-funded RE-IMAGINE/CCAFS Scenarios collaboration, and their implications for the use of foresight for policy guidance across the region.

In each of the four regions, a new process or a new phase of an existing policy or investment process has been initiated (five in total), and these processes will be further developed in 2021, with the following elements:
1. Updated and extended sets of scenarios with more flexibility and greater (quantitative) focus on FNS, broader socio-economic concerns (see section on modelling below).
2. A capacity development trajectory of several months for key stakeholders, as part of the scenario-guided policy process.
3. Engagement with sub-national level actors feeding into national policy.
4. Clear design of the process not just as a policy guidance case but as a research case.

For 2021:
(1) Extend the Bangladesh case + the development of two research papers.
* Youth and gender. Implementation of the distributional effects in the microsimulation with CSIRO. Also food accessibility + dietary adequacy proxied by the nutrient composition of household food availability.
(2) Use the Bangladesh case to engage with global donors and development banks around integrated investment strategies.

Several CCAFS-related PhD projects will be initiated at Utrecht University as part of the 2017-2021 Scenarios Project scope, co-supervised by Joost Vervoort:
• Lucas Rutting – integrating foresight and governance processes at multiple levels in socio-ecological systems.
• Dhanush Dhinesh – Institutional contexts, barriers and enablers for upscaling Climate Smart Agriculture.
• Karlijn Muiderman – Improving anticipatory Governance for food security in the context of climate change and migration.

Project Deliverables