Download Now! Actions to Transform Food Systems under Climate Change

Scaling out scenario-guided policy and investment planning

Also available in Español

Project description 

The Future Scenarios project has developed socio-economic and climate scenarios at regional levels as a tool for strategic policy planning and investment decisions. Through workshops and close collaborations with policymakers, the team has facilitated the adaptation and use of these scenarios, which help next-users establish more robust plans, policies and strategies and provide “no-regrets” options in the face of diverse futures. Keys to the success of the CCAFS scenario project has been a focus on specific policies, plans and questions; openness and adaptability of the scenario method; and ensuring strong process ownership by decision-makers.

In the period from 2010 to 2016, the Scenarios Project developed from a focus on regional scenario development alone to engaging with specific national and regional policy processes for scenario-guided policy formulation. This resulted in a diverse set of policy outcomes in 7 scenario regions. 

We aim to build on this successful first phase in the following ways:

  1. More emphasis on engaging with CCAFS policy concerns from a food systems/food and nutrition security perspective.
  2. A focus on the gap in research between foresight and governance - who governs foresight?
  3. Using foresight as a mechanism for inclusion of gender and youth issues and stakeholders.
  4. A stronger focus on the development of longer-term institutional capacity in foresight methods.
  5. Increased emphasis on integrating sub-national governance levels into national policy making, and on implementation planning.
  6. An increased focus on research and reflection on the conducted foresight processes.


  • In-depth scenario-guided policy formulation and institutional capacity development in CCAFS regions
  • Scenario quantification and model development using MAGNET model
  • Supervision of CCAFS PhD researchers on foresight and governance, upscaling CSA

Expected outcomes 

  • Scenario-guided formulation of plans leads to more robust and more inclusive policies, implementation plans and investments.
  • All Scenario Project policy guidance processes focus on both the inclusion of gender concerns in policy development, as well as the inclusion of stakeholders representing gender equality needs in the policy process.
  • Use of scenarios at the national level helps decision makers adapt plans and direct investment

Gender and youth 

The Scenarios Project uses scenario-guided policy formulation as a way to make participation in policy processes possible diverse stakeholders, including women and women's groups, and to include gender issues in planning. Our critical research focus on 'who governs foresight, to what end' is very well suited to this goal.


This project is now led by the Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development at Utrecht University. It was previously coordinated by the University of Oxford. Partners include:

  • Wageningen University and Research (WUR)
  • Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)
  • International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
  • International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
  • International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
  • International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
  • International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)
  • International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
  • Asociación Coordinadora Indígena y Campesina de Agroforestería Comunitaria de Centroamérica (ACICAFOC)
  • Ministerio del Ambiente, Peru (MINAM)
  • Secretaría de Agricultura y Ganadería, Honduras (SAG)
  • Water Research Institute (WRI)
  • International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
  • Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
  • Oxfam Great Britain
  • Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
  • Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
  • Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
  • Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Cambodia (MAFF)
  • Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace (CICP)
  • Ministry of Commerce, Cambodia (MoC)
  • Yezin Agricultural University (YAU)
  • Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB)
  • Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan
  • Ministry of Planning, Bangladesh
  • Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana (MoFA)
  • Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC)
  • Future Earth
  • World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
  • Society for International Development - Eastern Africa (SID EA)
  • Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS)
  • University of International Cooperation (UCI)
  • University of Oxford
  • Ministry of Agriculture, Burkina Faso (MASA)
  • Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
  • Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries, Uganda (MAAIF)
  • Vice President's Office, United Republic of Tanzania
  • Consejo Agropecuario Centroamericano (CAC)
  • Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
  • Jebsen & Jessen Group of Companies South East Asia (JJSEA)
  • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

More information

Funding for this project is provided by: