Download Now! Actions to Transform Food Systems under Climate Change

Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture

Event Date and time

Venue

Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Regions

CCAFS EA will hold a national training involving partners in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on use of analogue tools and climate scenarios in designing adaptation strategies to climate change.

The Climate Analogues approach provides a powerful tool to assist in climate adaptation strategies by connecting areas with similar climatic conditions that may be spatially and/or temporally separated (e.g. where in Tanzania can we find locations that currently experience the future projected climate of Dar es Salaam?, or what other areas around the world currently experience a climate that is similar to mine?). The approach is thus invaluable for future adaptation and planning strategies, as well as identifying areas that could benefit from collaborative research and sharing of genetic resources today.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture plays a very important role in providing food and income for the majority of the population. In Tanzania, the agriculture sector contributes about 45.1% to the GDP and is the economic mainstay (Majule, 2008; World Bank, 2002). Over 80% of Tanzania’s population directly relies on agriculture for their livelihood which is almost entirely rain-fed. The precipitation is bimodal, with the long rains of Masika between March-May and short rains of Vuli between October-December. According to the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) (2006), agriculture has been identified as one of the sectors highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, which is manifested by recurrent drought and variable rainfall with prolonged dry spells followed by intense storms. In order to endure future climate changes, farmers must improve their adaptive capacities which could be achieved by referencing these current climate situations.

The training workshop will consist of an introductory session to familiarise participants on the theory behind the Climate Analogues approach as well as its current and potential applications. Participants will then be introduced to the online tool which allows quick identification of likely analogues sites and following this the participants will learn how to perform in-depth analysis using the R package. The Analogues R package is the preferred platform for applications of the tool, such as for Farms of the Future, as it facilitates use of all available GCMs, allows for greater uncertainty quantification and the potential introduction of user defined data. The training will enhance the capacity of researchers in applying the climate analogue tool in their research system, and generating farm level decisions that transform the agricultural sector to become more resilient to climate related shocks.

Objectives

Participants in the training workshop will learn how to:

  • Use the Climate Analogues online tool for identification and visualisation of likely analogue sites.
  • Download, install and use the Analogues R package with CCAFS downscaled climate data.
  • Perform basic analyses in the Analogues R package using the ensemble option, as well as how to quantify uncertainties when using all available global climate models.
  • Identify likely analogue sites by calculating an appropriate threshold value and investigating raw data.
  • Introduce and use user defined data to fine-tune the search for analogue sites