Big Facts on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

• Fishery adaptation strategies will vary considerably across the globe—from changing locations to shifting the timing and species targeted—depending on the local impacts of climate change (Cochrane et al. 2009; Grafton 2009).
• There is huge potential to expand aquaculture (raising of fish in captivity in the sea or freshwater) even in the face of climate change (Cochrane et al. 2009).
• Aquatic species that do not migrate extensively and that have wide environmental tolerances can be used in aquaculture and targeted by capture fisheries to help adapt to new climatic conditions (FAO 2013 p. 93).
• Improving the general resilience of fisheries and aquaculture systems will reduce their vulnerability to climate change. For example, biodiversity-rich fisheries are less sensitive to climate change than those that are overfished and have little biodiversity. Healthy coral reef and mangroves systems, for example, provide natural barriers to physical impacts such as storm surges. Communities that are dependent on fisheries and aquaculture have strong social systems and a portfolio of livelihood options that have higher adaptive capacities and lower sensitivities to change. Larger-scale production systems that have effective governance systems and high capital mobility tend to be more resilient to change than smaller-scale systems or those with weak governance systems (De Young et al. 2012 p. 9).
• Technical innovation provides some adaptation options. Such innovations include: breeding aquaculture species that are tolerant of saline water to confront sea-level rise; development of storm-resistant fish farming systems (e.g. sturdier fish cages); and the widespread use of information technology to share weather and market information (De Young et al. 2012 p. 10).
• Governance of fisheries affects the range of adaptation options available and will need to be flexible enough to accommodate changes in stock distribution and abundance. Governance aimed at supporting equitable and sustainable fisheries, that accommodates inherent uncertainty and that is based on an ecosystem approach, as currently advocated, is thought to generally improve the adaptive capacity of fisheries (Daw et al. 2009 p. 108).
• Strategies that make the fishing system more sustainable and economically rewarding are essential to help small-scale fisheries adapt to climate change. Specific adaptation interventions should build on fishers’ current strategies for dealing with risk, shocks and change to avoid maladaptation. They should recognize places where climate change will benefit local fisheries as well as those places where climate change will have a negative impact (Badjeck et al. 2010).
• An effective means to build resilience of ocean systems would be to tackle other stressors such as pollution, overfishing and trawling that are already degrading ecosystems and exacerbating vulnerability to climate change (Nellemann et al. 2008).

Examples of measures to adapt to climate impacts on fisheries

Impact on fisheries	Potential adaptation measures
Reduced fisheries productivity and yields	Access higher-value markets Increase effort or fishing power*
Increased variability of yield	Diversify livelihood portfolio Insurance schemes Precautionary management for resilient ecosystems Implementation of integrated and adaptive management
Change in distribution of fisheries	Private research and development and investments in technologies to predict migration routes and availability of commercial fish stocks* Migration*
Reduced profitability	Reduce costs to increase efficiency Diversify livelihoods Exit the fishery for other livelihoods/investments
Increased vulnerability of coastal, riparian and floodplain communities and infrastructure to flooding, sea level and surges	Hard defences* Managed retreat/accommodation Rehabilitation and disaster response Integrated coastal management Infrastructure provision (e.g. protecting harbours and landing sites) Early warning systems and education Post-disaster recovery Assisted migration
Increased risks associated with fishing (e.g. safety at sea)	Private insurance of capital equipment Adjustments in insurance markets Insurance underwriting Weather warning system Investment in improved vessel stability/safety Compensation for impacts
Trade and market shocks	Diversification of markets and products Information services for anticipation of price and market shocks
Displacement of population leading to influx of new fishers	Support for existing local management institutions
Various	Publicly available research and development
* Adaptations to declining/variable yields that directly risk exacerbating overexploitation of fisheries by increasing fishing pressure or impacting habitats Source: Based on De Young et al. (2012 p. 11).

Examples of measures to adapt to climate impacts on aquaculture

Impacts	Adaptive measures
Temperature rise above optimal range of tolerance	Better feeds Selective breeding for higher temperature tolerance
Increased growth rates as a result of temperature change; higher production	Increase feed input and better management
Eutrophication and upwelling; mortality of stock	Better planning: farm/cage siting conforming to ecosystem carrying capacity Regular monitoring
Increased virulence of dormant pathogens	None; monitoring to prevent health risks
Limitations on fishmeal and fish oil supplies/price	Fishmeal and fish oil replacement New forms of feed management Shift to non-carnivorous species
Coral reef destruction	None, but shifting from harvesting to breeding of coral reef species may improve reef resilience by reducing fishing pressure and harmful fishing practices
Saltwater intrusion	Shift non-salt-tolerant species upstream (costly) Grow new salt-tolerant species in old facilities
Loss of agricultural land	Promote aquaculture to provide alternative livelihoods Capacity building and infrastructure
Indirect influence on estuarine aquaculture through changes in brood stock and seed availability	None
Impact on calcareous shell formation/deposition	None
Limitations on water abstraction	Improve efficacy of water usage Encourage non-consumptive water-use aquaculture, e.g. cage-based aquaculture and/or mariculture
Water retention period reduced	Use of fast-growing fish species Increase efficacy of water sharing with primary users e.g. irrigation of rice paddy
Availability of wild seed stocks reduced/period changed	Shift to artificially propagated seed (extra cost)
Destruction of facilities; loss of stock; loss of business; large-scale escapes with the potential to affect biodiversity	Encourage uptake of individual/cluster insurance Improve design to minimize mass escape Encourage use of indigenous species to minimize impacts on biodiversity.
De Young et al. (2012 p. 11) after Cochrane et al. (2009).