Eventos

CCAFS and its regional partners have been jointly developing scenarios as a platform for the exchange and application of knowledge and experience between actors across West Africa. The development of regional scenarios is a crucial first step in the CCAFS strategic futures process. Scenarios are alternate, plausible futures that capture uncertainties and systems complexity in a coherent and plausible yet surprising and challenging fashion. Through its scenarios process, CCAFS aims to provide and then use scenarios that function as alternate future contexts in which state and non-state actors in the region can explore policies, strategies and technologies toward better food security, environments and livelihoods.  

For this purpose, the quantification of scenarios – exploring the consequences of assumptions in the scenario narratives in terms of numbers- is crucial because:

• Through quantification the scenarios can provide much more specific information for policy makers, researchers and non-state actors about plausible alternative futures. These actors can use this information to guide their policy and strategy development – exploring the real limits and opportunities that different futures entail.
• Quantification through modelling allows for a “dialogue” between the assumptions of the scenario process participants and the assumptions of the models. The models can help identify inconsistencies and unexpected consequences of the assumptions made by the creators of the scenario.
• Conversely, the scenarios can challenge the models by pushing their limits with real-world issues. This might prompt those working on the models to extend or change the models to incorporate interesting new questions coming out of the scenarios.
• The final set of scenarios is stakeholder-determined and model-driven, thus combining stakeholder knowledge on the local issues and experts knowledge on methods and tools – while the core of the process is determined by regional stakeholders.

Scenarios that incorporate a real, integrated exchange between qualitative scenario narratives and quantification through modelling offer the best of both worlds: alternate futures depicted both in clear numbers and in engaging narratives that can capture and integrate a degree of complexity and non-linearity that generally lies beyond models.

Workshop outputs

This workshop is organized by CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in partnership with the West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF/WECARD). The direct outputs will be:

• Revised scenario narratives
• Quantified assumptions for model drivers
• Quantified assumptions for non-model outcomes of interest

Following the workshop the quantified assumptions for model drivers will be further developed and used by the model teams to run quantitative scenarios. After a series of iterations between the models and the narratives, the model outputs (graphs, maps, tables), non-model outputs and scenario narratives will form the basis of a detailed, extensive West Africa scenarios document. This document will be the basis for a range of strategic planning  and research efforts across spatial levels and sectors for better food security, environments and livelihoods in West Africa (see previous sections), as well as a series of other outputs (videos, newspaper articles, radio programs and more) aimed at specific audiences created with our media partners, PANOS Western Africa.

Long-term: using scenarios for policy, action and research across geographical levels and sectors

The use of the CCAFS West Africa scenarios aims at the building of adaptive and transformative capacity to climate and socio-economic change in the service of improved food security, livelihoods and environments – through strategic planning processes with actors across scales and sectors.

1. Policy impacts through strategic planning (back-casting) with high-level regional policy makers and non-state actors – to develop strategies and policies for improved food security, environments and livelihoods under uncertainty. An example from East Africa is our current strategic planning process with the East African Community General Secretariat.
2. Regional socio-economic inputs to test the feasibility of research outcomes, strategies and technologies across geographical scales (for instance through programs such as UNEP/UNDP’s CC DARE).
3. Wide public engagement on future uncertainties and regional visions through various national and regional media and online platforms (collaboration with PANOS media network).

Read more about CCAFS work with Scenarios here.