East Africa Scenarios Workshop 1: Introducing and Developing Regional Scenarios
Workshop Objectives
- Introduce rationale and process of developing futures narratives and scenarios, and jointly develop a set of four scenario narratives for East Africa.
- Identify actors and actions for further development and modelling of the narratives.
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Workshop Objectives
- Introduce rationale and process of developing futures narratives and scenarios, and jointly develop a set of four scenario narratives for East Africa.
- Identify actors and actions for further development and modelling of the narratives.
Wednesday 25 August
Session 1
Introduction to scenarios (John Ingram) including Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Polly Ericksen) and ‘Forum for the Future’ (Andrew Ainslie)
Session 2
3 Breakout Groups: What are the major driving issues and their uncertainties for East Africa food security and agriculture/land use?
- 3 sets of top 5 drivers and nature and magnitude of uncertainty
Session 3
- Report back
- Establish consolidated list of main drivers and uncertainties
Session 4
3 Breakout Groups: Establish 3-4 plausible futures for East Africa; What are the major features of each scenario?
- skeletons for 3-4 scenarios
- names for each scenario
Thursday 26 August
Session 1
- Recap of yesterday
- Reminder of what scenarios are and their value
- Report back
- Establish consolidated list of 3-4 scenarios and agree names
Session 2
- 3-4 Breakout Groups: Begin to flesh out main elements for each narrative
- Report back, identify overlaps, major inconsistencies
- 3-4 Breakout Groups: Continue to flesh out narratives
Session 3
- Report back
- Agree main elements of narratives
- Scenarios road map: narrative drafting; follow-up meeting
Session 4
Wrap-up and evaluation
Outputs: Background on qualitative scenarios