The research was implemented in collaboration with the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute.

Climate change impacts bring great uncertainty, raising the need to plan for the future. As the impacts of climate change are complex and far-reaching, it can be extremely difficult to foresee exactly what the consequences will be, and how they will affect different regions and sectors. However, by bringing together relevant stakeholders and brainstorming "what if" ideas of possible future scenarios, policy makers can prepare themselves for a variety of potential challenges. Including stakeholders from diverse backgrounds can avoid blindspots focused on a single vision of the future. 

CCAFS scenarios work has engaged in precisely this sort of future-proofing, informing a range of agricultural, climate, and development policies across a number of countries. The CCAFS scenarios team created regional scenarios together with diverse stakeholders, quantifying them with IMPACT by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and GLOBIOM (IIASA) models.

Based on these scenarios, CCAFS was able to work closely with governments, researchers, and private sector representatives to co-design a process for a given plan or policy, based on analyses of challenges and opportunities presented within the different scenarios. These recommendations are informing the following plans: 

  • Honduras: National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture 
  • Cambodia: Climate Change Priorities Action Plan 
  • Bangladesh: 7th Five year plan 
  • Tanzania: New Environmental Policy 
  • Uganda: Agricultural Sector Plan 
  • Burkina Faso: National Plan for the Rural Sector 
  • Colombia: Action Plan for the National Agricultural Adaptation Strategy 
  • Ghana: National Climate Change Policy 

Key facts 

  • CCAFS scenarios work is informing climate, agriculture and socio-economic development policies in seven countries 
  • Integrating diverse scenario-based recommendations into the policy-making process creates a better enabling environment for climate resilience 

Lessons: key elements of success 

  • Bringing together diverse stakeholders to provide different perspectives and strategies regarding potential climate change scenarios 
  • Close collaboration with government teams in each case led to timely applications and ownership of the process by policy makers 
  • Development of flexible and credible scenarios applicable in the national context 

Further reading 

Related research outputs