Publications

The unpredictability of crop yields in climate vulnerable regions is damaging in many ways,
negatively impacting food security as well as imports, exports, food prices, and people’s
livelihoods. The CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) is an open
source, flexible crop-forecasting platform that includes a crop simulation module, a weather
and seasonal forecast simulation module, and a geographic information system module. The
toolbox aims to provide information to ensure better management of agricultural risks
associated with increased climate variability and extreme weather events. It uses historical
databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops.
Advances in crop forecasting technology and crop modelling help with the estimation of inseason
crop yields under a variable climate, which enables stakeholders such as policy
makers, line agencies, cooperatives, extension workers, and farmers to better prepare the
mitigation strategies to cope with risks. From November 2014 through December 2016,
CRAFT was implemented in Nepal to forecast yields of wheat and paddy; forecast levels
aligned closely with Ministry estimates. Currently, CRAFT is being tested for yield
forecasting at the sub-national level in Nepal. The main objective of this paper is to present
the status and performance of CRAFT for food security monitoring in Nepal. It presents the
data inputs, the methodology and structure of the model, results and performance, limitations,
and assumptions made in forecasting the yields of paddy and wheat for different seasons in
Nepal.