Events

Workshop Objectives

  • To refine a draft set of four East African Scenarios based on the work done at and since the first workshop (Nairobi, 24-26 August 2010)
  • To agree a set of ~9 main synergy/tradeoff variables for Food Security, Environment and Livelihoods (FSEL) (~3 for each) of interest to CCAFS
  • To identify synergies and trade-offs between FSEL variables for each scenario
  • To plan follow-up activities

CCAFS, CGIAR, ESSP

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ASARECA

Participants List

Workshop Objectives

  • To refine a draft set of four East African Scenarios based on the work done at and since the first workshop (Nairobi, 24-26 August 2010)
  • To agree a set of ~9 main synergy/tradeoff variables for Food Security, Environment and Livelihoods (FSEL) (~3 for each) of interest to CCAFS
  • To identify synergies and trade-offs between FSEL variables for each scenario
  • To plan follow-up activities

Anticipated Outputs

  • A draft set of four plausible, internally coherent and discrete East African Scenarios
  • A set of FSEL variables of interest for analysis of synergies/tradeoffs
  • An initial analysis of how each FSEL variable would change for each scenario (plotted on spider diagrams)
  • Plans for follow-up activities

Tuesday 5 October

Session 1

Opening and Review of Progress (Chair: John Ingram)

 East African Narratives (Chair: Andrew Ainslie)

  • Presentations of main points of 4 initial Narratives (10 mins each)
  • Discussion
  • Scenarios Groups discussions to check internal consistency of Narratives

 

Wednesday 6 October

Session 1

Plans for the day and what we aim to achieve (John Ingram)

East African Narratives (continued) (Chair: Andrew Ainslie)

  • Presentations of revisions to Narratives (15 mins each)
  • Discussion

Session 2

  • Introduction to FSEL variables; notion of synergies and tradeoffs (Polly Ericksen)
  • Discussion
  • Group discussions (3 groups; different mix to Scenarios Groups) to identify FSEL variables of interest to CCAFS

Session 3

Report back and distillation of ~9 FSEL variable for identifying synergies/tradeoffs (for spider axes) (Polly Ericksen to lead)

Session 4

Scenarios Groups discussions to check narratives can ‘accommodate’ agreed FSEL variables

 

Thursday 7 October

Analysing changes in FSEL variables (Chair: Andrew Ainslie)

Session 1

a. Describing changes
  • Introduction and Charge to Groups (Polly Ericksen)

  • Scenario Groups discussions to describe changes (give 3-4 examples of changes that are likely to affect each variable)

b. Assessing changes in FSEL variables

  • Introduction and Charge to Groups (John Ingram)
  • Scenario Groups discussions to systematically assess changes (assign ++, +, 0, -, -- for each FSEL variable)

c.    Analysing synergies/tradeoffs

Report back and plot changes in FSEL variables

Session 4

Discussion on outcomes of the exercise

Follow-up activities in the region (Chair: John Ingram)

  • Plans for refining scenarios narratives, formatting output, reporting
  • Plans for follow-up activities in the region: quantitative modelling and links to CCAFS Themes – 2011 activities

Outputs

“4 Steps to Building East African Scenarios” (PDF)

Report on CCAFS Regional Scenarios Development for East Africa (PDF)