Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by
regional experts and then quantified using the IMPACT and GLOBIOM models. The
scenarios were used in a number of policy design processes at national and regional levels.
The model results show that investment in agriculture is essential to close yield gaps needed
for growing demand, and that increases in production costs increases these yield gaps.
However, even under high agricultural investments, regional production is unlikely to meet
regional demand. In many cases, the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios are more
impactful than climate effects on yields. Increased yields can lead to crop area expansion, and
the protection and enforcement of forests and biodiversity is essential, especially with
increased investment in agriculture. The CCAFS scenarios process show the need to combine
socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways
to make scenarios useful for policy design.
Palazzo A, Vervoort J, Havlik P, Mason-D’Croz D, Islam S. 2014. Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America: A multi-regional synthesis. CCAFS Working Paper no. 109. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).