West Africa Scenarios Workshop 1: Introducing and Developing Regional Scenarios
Workshop Objectives
- Introduce rationale and process of developing futures narratives and scenarios, and jointly develop a set of four scenario narratives for West Africa.
- Identify actors and actions for further development and modelling of the narratives.
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Workshop Objectives
- Introduce rationale and process of developing futures narratives and scenarios, and jointly develop a set of four scenario narratives for West Africa.
- Identify actors and actions for further development and modelling of the narratives.
Wednesday 29 September
Session 1
- Introduce scenarios as a concept and a process within the CCAFS program – presentations by John Ingram (JI), Andrew Ainslie (AA) and Polly Ericksen (PE)(University of Oxford/CCAFS and ILRI)
- (Presentations: What, why and how?; Developing CCAFS Scenarios; Forum for the Future)
- Plenary discussion (questions and clarifications) – John Ingram
Session 2
Breakout groups to explore (i) What are the main driving issues and their uncertainties for West African food security and agriculture/land use?
- 3 sets of top 5 drivers and the nature & magnitude of uncertainty
Session 3
Report back
- establish consolidated list of main drivers and uncertainties – Facilitated by John Ingram
Session 4
Three breakout groups establish between 2 and 5 plausible futures for West Africa; What are the major features of each scenario – AA to lead the introduction to this session.
- skeletons for between 2 and 5 scenarios
- names of each scenario
Thursday 30 September
Session 1
- Opening and Recap of Day 2 by Thomas Schwedersky
- Report back from each group – presentation of their skeleton narratives
Establish consolidated list of 3 or 4 scenarios and agree on names (PE to facilitate)
Session 2
- 3 or 4 breakout groups begin to flesh out the narratives (JI, AA, PE)
Produce main elements for each narrative
- Breakout groups report back (if required) – identify overlaps, major inconsistencies
- 3 or 4 breakout groups continue to flesh out narratives
Session 3
- Report back – agree on the main elements of narratives - JI and AA
- Scenarios road map: Identify, recruit and charge small writing groups and/or individuals to further develop the narratives; timetable and scheduling of tasks; dates and venue for follow-up meeting – Andrew Ainslie
Session 4
Wrap up and evaluation of the Scenario development process over the past two days – 3 Scenario Facilitators
