Dramatic rainfall changes for key crops are expected even with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In an official side event at SB50, we discuss adaptation measures to respond to these changes.


Rain-fed agriculture currently constitutes 6095% of farmed land across the developing world. Changing rainfall patterns could have a large impact on agriculture in developing countries. Using over 20 different climate models, researchers have projected how precipitation could be affected by climate change. Model simulations for the four main emission scenarios were used identify the timeline when climate change causes rainfall to deviate significantly from the past, more than it would naturally. This is also called the time of emergence (TOE). This was done for the crop-growing regions of four major crops: wheat, rice, soybean and maize. This event aims to present findings from the study and discuss implications for adaptation planning and action with key stakeholders.


The aim is to start a dialogue on stepping up adaptation for agriculture in response to emerging evidence on rainfall changes for key crops, and to enable countries, international organizations, NGOs, and other agricultural adaptation stakeholders to make evidence-based decisions in response to emerging evidence on rainfall changes.


Ana Maria Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Head of Global Policy Research, CCAFS

Welcome, side event objectives, introduction to speakers

5 minutes

Opening keynote

Maisa Rojas Corradi, Associate Professor, Universidad de Chile and Director, Center for Climate and Resilience Research

21st century emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas

10 minutes

Andy Challinor, Professor of Climate Impacts, University of Leeds

Enabling evidence based action at the local, national, regional and global levels10 minutes

Panel discussion: Raising ambition for adaptation in agricultural systems

Format: ‘Chat show’ moderated by Ana Maria Loboguerrero Rodriguez

George Wamukoya, Team Leader, African Group of Negotiators Expert Support

TBD, International Water Management Institute

Rebecca Carter, Deputy Director, Climate Resilience Practice, World Resources Institute

David Howlett, Head of Policy, Global Resilience Partnership


35 minutes

Moderated Q&A with the audience

20 min

Julio Cordano, Head, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chile

Final remarks and wrap up

10 minutes




This event is co-hosted by:

  • The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
  • University of Leeds
  • International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
  • International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

This event page provides details for one of three official side events that CCAFS will co-host with partners during the 50th session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA50). To see other events that CCAFS is co-hosting or participating in, please click here.