The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international collaborative effort focusing on “incorporating state-of-the-art climate products as well as crop and agricultural economic model improvements in coordinated regional and global assessments of future climate impacts”. CCAFS, with its former Theme on Policy Analysis, had been co-leading the AGMIP Global Economics Team during AgMIP Phase 1 (2011-2013), with an emphasis on global economic modeling.
The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.
Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector.
AgMIP is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural economics modeling groups around the world. It aims to significantly enhance information, including uncertainty estimates, to guide policymakers regarding risk of hunger, world food security, and agricultural adaptation, under a changing climate.
A key aspect of the Global Economics team work is to create capacity-building partnerships among agricultural crop and economic modelers around the world, with a goal to facilitate intercomparison of both regional and global agricultural market models being used for climate change impact and adaptation research.
During AgMIP’s Phase 1 (2011-2013), the global economic research included 10 models. It was partially incepted to support the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Key results of this work have been included in a PNAS paper and a special issue in the Journal of Agricultural Economics. This work has provided broad insights into how the modeling groups approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, and bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.
Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlik, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d’Croz, D., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., Willenbockel, D. (2014): Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS, 111, 9, 3274-3279.
Nelson, G.C. and Shively, G.E. (2014): Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
von Lampe, M. et al. (2014): Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Nelson, G.C. et al. (2014): Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree? Agricultural Economics,45(1). Weblink to article
Müller, C. and Robertson, R. (2014): Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics,45(1). Weblink to article
Robinson, S. et al. (2014): Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Valin, H. et al. (2014): The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics,45(1). Weblink to article
Schmitz, C. et al. (2014): Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Lotze-Campen, H. et al. (2014): Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article