Publications

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops
could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through
conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could help meet these challenges, if adequately supported by
appropriate information on the future climate. We highlight some of the major challenges for crop breeders and growers in
the coming decades, and describe the main characteristics of crop breeding techniques and other adaptation options for
agriculture. We review recent uses of climate information to support crop breeding decisions and make recommendations
for how this might be improved.
We conclude that there is significant potential for breeders to work more closely with climate scientists and crop modellers
in order to address the challenges of climate change. It is not yet clear how climate information can best be used. Fruitful
areas of investigation include: provision of climate information to identify key target breeding traits and develop improved
success criteria (e.g. for heat/drought stress); identification of those conditions under which multiple stress factors (for
example, heat stress, mid-season drought stress, flowering drought stress, terminal drought stress) are important in
breeding programmes; use of climate information to inform selection of trial sites; identification of the range of
environments and locations under which crop trials should be performed (likely to be a wider range of environments than
done at present); identification of appropriate duration of trials (likely to be longer than current trials, due to the
importance of capturing extreme events); and definition of appropriate methods for incorporating climate information into
crop breeding programmes, depending on the specific needs of the breeding programme and the strengths and
weaknesses of available approaches.
Better knowledge is needed on climate-related thresholds important to crop breeders, for example on the frequency and
severity of extreme climate events relevant to the product profile, or to help provide tailored climate analyses (particularly
for extreme events). The uncertainties inherent in climate and impact projections provide a particular challenge for
translating climate science into actionable outcomes for agriculture. Further work is needed to explore relevant social and
economic assumptions such as the level and distribution of real incomes, changing consumption patterns, health impacts,
impacts on markets and trade, and the impact of legislation relating to conservation, the environment and climate change.