This research area focuses on the scenario-guided formulation and implementation of policies and action plans relevant to food security under climate change. Work in the first phase of CCAFS produced future scenarios for all of the CCAFS regions which were then used by national and regional decision makers to help formulate and revise agriculture and climate change related policies. Moving forward, this new research area will respond to commonly-expressed requests for further capacity development through hands-on training using real-life processes that combine learning and plan development.

The food and nutrition security futures research area involves the development and application of multi-level participatory scenario approaches and modelling, using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative tools.

This research area addresses the following questions in relation to scenario development and analysis: How can macro-level modelling tools be complemented with micro-modelling of consumer behaviour to assess and project food security futures at multiple scales and across sectors (health, environmental sustainability, economic viability), as well as be responsive to stakeholders’ elicitation of established and understudied drivers of food security, such as gender, education and governance? How can scenario results be analysed to help understand key trade-offs?

Some example planned outputs include:

  • A toolbox of state-of-the art micro-level models of nutrition behaviour of individual consumers and macro-level models of natural resource use, food system activity, consumption and nutrition, with long-term time horizons and opportunities, for the quantification of future scenarios and the exploration of levers for innovation and policy reform.
  • Cutting-edge scenario development methodology for incorporating many drivers of change and exploring multi-dimensional scenario possibility spaces in a structured process, beyond the limits of current methods.
  • Innovative methodology developed for the analysis of composite scenario results, which supports the investigation of key trade-offs in mainstreaming climate adaptation in broader policy contexts and across food systems.
  • Strategy documents, with a focus on implementation plans, informed by inclusive, multi-level scenario processes in several countries.
  • Combined climate and food security scenarios developed across regional, national and subnational levels, with a link to global level scenarios, focusing on policy implementation across levels.
  • Reports on scenario-guided investments by private sector partners in each focus region.
  • Capacity for scenario-based strategic planning strengthened in national, regional, and global partners, emphasizing implementable and tractable plans.