Projects

Livestock and fish production, consumption of animal-sourced foods, and climate change to 2050

Current
Photo: S. Kilungu (CCAFS)

Project description

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security under a changing climate. This work is led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and CCAFS has since 2011 co-supported significant IMPACT model improvements, as well as several research products using IMPACT results, and related multi-stakeholder trainings. The continuation of this project aims to further enhance the IMPACT suite of models, towards improved analysis of climate change impacts by incorporating, among other things, variability and land-use changes into the model. In parallel, targeted policy engagement with ongoing and new partners under the Global Futures and Foresight Program, using the IMPACT model, aims to inform better decision-making processes.  The project aims to build capacity among stakeholders to use IMPACT in their decision-making processes. The project sees this leading to an enhanced institutionalization of strategic foresight analysis covering plausible global futures for agriculture and food security under climate change. The results of this improved analysis will then be used as inputs for improved decisions on climate policy and investment. Furthermore, an established community of practice of biophysical scientists, economic modelers and other disciplines is expected to further contribute to an improved understanding of long-term challenges and opportunities in agriculture and food security at a variety of scales, and to better inform priority setting for investment resources.

Project Activities

Improved livestock and fish modules in IMPACT, incorporating multiple production systems, and strengthened links to CGE models and to post-process models of food security, nutrition, health, and environmental outcomes under alternative policy and investment strategies.

Engagement with regional and national partners and stakeholders to develop scenarios relevant to regional and national decision making challenges, possibly including comparing impacts of alternative strategies of investment in extensive vs intensive production systems, or in small-scale vs large-scale production systems.
While engaging with partners and stakeholders, we will seek and take advantage of opportunities to contribute to policy processes at the national and regional levels.

Implementation of the selected scenarios in the IMPACT system of models and analysis of the results, with particular focus on Southeast Asia.

• Dialog: engagement with regional and national partners and stakeholders (such as ASEAN, EAC and Embrapa) to discuss results and implications for decision making.
• Publication: publication and dissemination of results in three regional reports with companion policy notes to reach scientific, policy, and more general audiences.
• Capacity strengthening: through engagement with regional and national partners and stakeholders to develop scenarios and discuss results and implications for decision making.

Improved livestock and fish modules in IMPACT, incorporating multiple production systems, and strengthened links to CGE models and to post-process models of food security, nutrition, health, and environmental outcomes under alternative policy and investment strategies.

Engagement with regional and national partners and stakeholders to discuss opportunities to contribute to policy processes at the national and regional levels.
Engagement with international donors to develop methodology to estimate costs of adaptation across agricultural production systems.

Implementation of selected scenarios in the IMPACT system of models and analysis of the results, including results on Southeast Asia, to inform the work of the Global Commission on Adaptation

Engagement with international donors to inform future investment strategies on adaptation.
Development and use of the CGIAR Foresight report to stimulate focused interactions with donors, national governments and other partners to better understand their needs and help align CGIAR research with key global, regional and local initiatives
Use of new fish module to analyze trends for fish demand and supply at global and regional scale.
Incorporation of livestock in country level IMPACT-SIM model. And testing with data in a few countries.

Project Deliverables

2018
2019
2020