Climate change impacts on African crop production


According to the most recent IPCC report, changes in climates over the last 30 years
have already reduced global agricultural production in the range 1-5 % per decade
globally, with particularly negative effects for tropical cereal crops such as maize and
rice (Porter et al., 2014). In addition, there is now mounting evidence suggesting that
even at low (+2 ºC) levels of warming, agricultural productivity is likely to decline
across the globe, but particularly across tropical areas (Challinor et al., 2014). This
Working Paper provides an overview of projected climate change impacts on crop
production and suitability across Africa, using a combination of literature review,
models and new data analysis.


Ramirez-Villegas J, Thornton PK. 2015. Climate change impacts on African crop production. CCAFS Working Paper no. 119. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).


  • Ramírez Villegas, Julián
  • Thornton, Philip K.