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This article analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact potential of improved management practices
and technologies for smallholder agriculture promoted under a global food security development
program. Under ‘business-as-usual’ development, global studies on the future of agriculture to 2050
project considerable increases in total food production and cultivated area. Conventional cropland
intensification and conversion of natural vegetation typically result in increased GHG emissions and
loss of carbon stocks. There is a strong need to understand the potential greenhouse gas impacts of
agricultural development programs intended to achieve large-scale change, and to identify pathways
of smallholder agricultural development that can achieve food security and agricultural production
growth without drastic increases in GHG emissions.
In an analysis of 134 crop and livestock production systems in 15 countries with reported impacts
on 4.8 million ha, improved management practices and technologies by smallholder farmers
significantly reduce GHG emission intensity of agricultural production, increase yields and reduce
post-harvest losses, while either decreasing or only moderately increasing net GHG emissions per
area. Investments in both production and post-harvest stages meaningfully reduced GHG emission
intensity, contributing to low emission development. We present average impacts on net GHG
emissions per hectare and GHG emission intensity, while not providing detailed statistics of GHG
impacts at scale that are associated to additional uncertainties. While reported improvements in
smallholder systems effectively reduce future GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual
development, these contributions are insufficient to significantly reduce net GHG emission in
agriculture beyond current levels, particularly if future agricultural production grows at projected
rates.